CEORG November 2002 Omnibus Survey on Attitudes towards EU Membership in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
According to the latest poll on the accession to the EU, conducted by the Central European Opinion Research Group Foundation (CEORG) in November 2002, the intention to participate in a referendum (those that claim to definitely or rather participate in a referendum) remains high in Hungary and Poland and has significantly risen in the Czech Republic since the last opinion poll in May 2002, and the support of EU accession in Hungary has fallen sharply.
A larg increase in intended participation was in the Czech Republic where 77.4% of the population would participate in the referendum, compared to 63% in May 2002. In Hungary the already high number intending to vote rose by 1.7% to 77.8% and in Poland by 0.5% to 72.1%. It is interesting to compare these figures to the figures of the latest general election participation rates when 58% of Czechs (June 2002), 70.5% of Hungarians (April 2002) and 61% of Poles (October 2001) participated in the polls. It should be remarked though that the declared election participation is always higher than the actual one.
The research shows that since May, the support for EU accession among those that would vote has not risen in any of the countries. In Hungary the support fell by 9.2% to 75.1%, in Poland and the Czech Republic the changes were rather insignificant by (decrease by 1.6% and 0.4% respectively). The Czech Republic remains the most Euro sceptic and Hungary the most Euro eager of the three.
Among the potential voters in the referenda, women generally tend to be more sceptical and more undecided about EU than men. With higher age the support for EU is decreasing (except for some variations in Poland). In Hungary, in the age group of 60+, there is a significant number of those that intend to take part in a referendum but do not know how to vote (18.8%).
Among those who have higher education support for EU membership is significantly higher than among those with lower education, especially in the Czech Republic (support to EU membership in group with primary education is 48.4% and in the group with university education it is 78.5%) and Poland (70.1% and 83% respectively). The support for EU accession is also higher in the larger towns rather than in rural areas (except for the Czech Republic, where the support in Prague is slightly lower than in other larger towns). Poland has the biggest difference in EU support throughout the country. The support in the cities is up to 83.8% of those that would vote in the EU referendum, while in the rural areas it is 60.9%.
In Hungary the most EU-sceptical are those in the age group of 40-59 years (16.7% against EU membership) and those living in rural areas (20.9% against EU membership), while the most EU enthusiastic are inhabitants of Budapest. In the Czech Republic, the highest support for EU membership can be found among respondents with tertiary education (78.5%), and the most EU opponents are in the group with primary education (43.2% would vote against EU membership). In Poland, inhabitants of rural area are the most eager opponents (27.5% against), while the highest support to EU membership is among the inhabitants of large cities (83.8% for) and people with tertiary education (83%).
Note: The referendum on EU accession is planned for 12th April 2003 in Hungary, June to Fall 2003 in Poland and 15-16 June 2003 in the Czech Republic.
» CEORG November 2002 Omnibus Survey (pdf-file)
